arly in his 90-minute presentation about how global structural changes are affecting Fulton County, futurist Ed Barlow invoked the "tough-love" mantra to describe his message. "The structural changes ahead of us will require a tough-love approach. And 'tough' means we're going to have to abandon traditional ways of thinking, tradi- tional ways of doing many, many things if we're going to engage the structural changes that are out ahead of us," Barlow told 80 people gathered on Oct. 30, 2007, at Rochester High School. President of St. Joseph, Mich.-based Creating the Future, Inc., he travels the world to deliver 120 speaking engagements annually, on average. Barlow, who holds a master's degree in management from Notre Dame, became a futurist when he realized that traditional business approaches were ineffective when dealing with large-scale, global changes. Both in the United States and internationally, people are confronting enormous issues such as global warming, an unpre- cedented, potentially catastrophic shortage of workers due to an aging population, and monu- mental changes in both tech- nology and how work itself can be accomplished. "All of this is happening at the same time and has to be understood and dealt with in a significant, multi-faceted approach," observed Barlow, whose professional experience includes 22 years in education as a high school teacher, a super- intendent of schools, and vice president of a college. In addition, he was the chief executive officer of a medical center for eight years, and served as a senior associate for 12 years with a Washington, D.C.-based management consulting firm.   FUTURIST'S MESSAGE PARAMOUNT  FOR N.I. WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT WorkOne Northern Indiana and the Northern Indiana Workforce Board, Inc., which oversees the regional WorkOne System, sponsored the presentation by Barlow. The board views his fundamental message — that ongoing structural changes will require individuals and communities to adapt and learn con- tinuously — as carrying paramount importance for northern Indiana; in this light, the board has hired Barlow to speak in each county of the WorkOne Northern Indiana service area (Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, Marshall and St. Joseph counties, constituting Indiana's Economic Growth Region 2).

What does "incredible structural change" worldwide — such as Internet blogging becoming the number one media source that determines where people take vacations — mean for Fulton County and northern Indiana? "No individual, no employer, no community is exempt from this structural change," Barlow said. EDUCATION, JOB & EMPLOYER ARE  JOURNEYS — NOT DESTINATIONS "Wealth creation is a journey; it is not a destination. So is a job; so is a career; so is a company; and so is education. Nothing is fixed; it's a continuous process of evaluating and adapting. And in times of structural change, it now becomes incredibly impor- tant to adapt," he said. Some of his tenets apply to both individuals — in their roles as students, teachers, school administrators, workers, supervi- sors, business executives, elected officials and citizens — and communities as a whole, in fulfilling collective duties to strengthen the local workforce. In an unprecedented era of global structural change, "You cannot stay the way you are and maintain the same level of wealth and income. Let me say that again: You can't stay the way you are and maintain the same level of wealth and income; it is not possible," Barlow remarked. "So if you don't want to embrace change, then begin to plan the reduction in standard of living and per capita dis- posable income. That is the reality! I don't like it — but that is the reality." During his travels, Barlow finds people "still very naive about the realities of the world that are coming our way." China, for instance, is a leader in spurring structural changes — but the most populous nation is on a path unfamiliar to people who associate Chinese labor mainly with supplying Wal-Mart stores across America with low-cost goods. "The future of China, folks, is not about low-cost manufacturing. It's about life sciences, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and, now, information technology. Those same areas we're [in the U.S.] trying to use to build a pathway to create wealth." As it happens, all four sectors, from life sciences to information technology, are vitally important to the workforce and economy of northern Indiana. An eight-minute video presentation, "ShiftHappens: Did You Know?," reinforces Barlow's core message ("ShiftHappens" was produced by educators in Colorado independent of Barlow).

FROM OKLAHOMA CITY, TO AUSTRALIA,  TO CHINA, STRUCTURAL CHANGES ABOUND A few of many illustrative examples of structural changes include:  An Oklahoma City company works on a project for seven hours a day; the project then is virtually transferred to a team in China where it's worked on for another seven hours. Before returning to Oklahoma City for another cycle, the project stops in France where another team labors on it;  A young man in Wyoming today digs natural resource out of the ground with a very sophisticated piece of equipment he operates with a joy-stick. Every move the man in Wyoming makes is monitored by an engineer in Houston, Texas, to make sure that the machine doesn't break down; and  More than 20 percent of X-rays of healthcare patients taken in the United States are read offshore, at night, with most of the analysis presently done in Australia. In addition, a typical nurse in an American hospital today spends 50 percent of his or her time in physical contact with patients providing care; the other half of the nurse's time is spent in virtual environments monitoring inputs from patients not only at the same facility but also from patients off-site. Concerning work duties as accomplished in 2007 in the United States, by the year 2032 (or 25 years into the future), 25 percent of today's work "can be done virtually by anybody, anywhere [worldwide], using new technology," Barlow said. "You add robotics to that, it adds another 10 percent; thus, 35 percent of the work as we currently know in this country today can be done by anybody, anywhere and robotically." By summer 2008, computer manufacturers are expected to offer for sale a $75-computer in India, thereby empowering millions of highly educated, underemployed Indian profes- sionals "to offer their human capital, intellectual capital, to this burgeoning virtual labor pool," he observed. COMING REALITY ON THE HORIZON:  'MINDS INTERCONNECTED IN REAL TIME' Many people presently view their existence as part of the physical world or biosphere, which is all organisms on Earth and their interactions. Yet, a major component of human existence or reality is gathering toward the noosphere (pronounced "nu-o-sphere"), which is defined as "minds interconnected in real time," Barlow said. "In fact, I suggest to you that 25 years from today, you will not be able to tell the difference between the virtual world and the physical world."

In Fulton County and elsewhere, when young people in school today join the workforce, they will, in fact, be able to understand the physical and virtual worlds, he observed. However, on the other side of the coin in terms of human responsibilities, the young people of 2007 are not going to enjoy the same health care and retirement benefits down the road that members of today's baby-boomer generation are accustomed to, Barlow said. The current reality is that employers everywhere are seeking cost reductions. "Does that suggest to you that today's individual young people will have to be more responsible for things: learn how to save, learn how to put money aside for their healthcare? I've been with the twenty largest employers in this country in the last six months and they are now rejecting — at an increasingly alarming rate — otherwise qualified candidates for work because they've got bad credit ratings and they are not viewed as stable employees. Does that suggest to you that financial literacy should be at every grade level K-through-12?," Barlow noted. "It says that to me." THE ENORMOUS BURDEN ON LIMITED NATURAL RESOURCES:  BY 2037, THREE EARTHS NEEDED TO FEED ONE-EARTH POPULATION Natural resources and the environment constitute another huge area undergoing struc- tural change, as most everyone can see when fueling a vehicle. In this regard, Barlow's forecast catches one's attention immediately. Concerning human responsibilities for using and protecting water, air, land, wildlife, and other natural resources, in looking ahead to the year 2037, "we will need another entire plant Earth just to meet the natural resource needs of a growing China alone — if you add the rest of the developing world to that; it's three planet Earths." In light of traditional patterns in the way Americans and others use natural resources today, "there's not enough, if the [human] species is to survive; we need to start collaborating with folks on the other side of the world whom we've never met to make sure we don't cannibalize this planet." How should individuals and communities respond while in the midst of phenomenal structural changes? "The thinking typically goes, 'Let's prioritize these eight [structural] things, take one this year, one next year, and so on for eight years. That doesn't work, folks," Barlow said, "because these are all happening at the same time. We are in a non-linear world of incredible structural change and we still want to use linear approaches to try to figure out and respond." AMID IRREVERSIBLE CHANGE: WHAT'S THE OUTLOOK  IF  INDIVIDUALS, COMMUNITIES AND ORGANIZATIONS DO NOT ADAPT? Maintaining his tough-love approach, Barlow provided a forecast of what he sees in the future if individuals, businesses and organizations fail to adapt to the structural changes that are not only happening right now but also are irreversible.  In other words, there's no going back to traditional economic and workforce structures if individuals and communities want to grow their incomes. "Now, at the end of the day, if you do not have here in Fulton County individual workers with globally competitive physical and virtual skill sets, their income is going down," Barlow observed. "And beyond that, employers will not be here because they cannot be profitable nor competitive here unless they have a workforce that's globally competitive in physical and virtual skill sets," he said. "So, if you don't have individuals with good incomes and employers that can be profitable, what's going to happen to your tax base, elected officials? It's going down — and it's going down big time. So, at the end of the day, folks, this discussion is all about wealth creation for workers, for employers and the community as a whole." HOW TO RESPOND AND ADAPT TO  UNFAMILIAR, NEW ECONOMIC TERRAIN After spotlighting the structural changes occurring, Barlow emphasized that individuals, organizations, and commun- ities can adapt and respond successfully in this unfamiliar, new terrain. One approach, for instance, is to abandon the traditional method to developing a strategic plan largely because once adopted, the plan's many assumptions have become outdated. Rather, individuals, organizations and communities can put into place a model called "planning strategically." In planning strategically, Barlow suggested an individual or organization ask four questions:  WHAT from the past can I keep because it has future value?  WHAT elements do I need to modify?  WHAT aspects do I discard because no future value exists? and;  MOST importantly, what components do I need to create value. 'THE GREATEST GIFT ANY  INDIVIDUAL CAN BE GIVEN ....'  "The greatest gift any individual can be given is:  the ability to know how to look around themselves and assess what is occurring and the relationship to them as an individual, and their ability to be successful. And, in this case for this discussion today, to create wealth," Barlow said.

YET THE GOOD NEWS IS ...  TO LEARN AND ADAPT "The future isn't bad — it is just different," he added. "And I believe that all kinds of successes will come to those [individuals and communities] who are able to under- stand the differences." Noting that lifelong learning is essential to individual success, Barlow quoted author and management theorist Peter Senge, "The only sustainable competitive advantage is the ability to learn faster than your competition." Most people should engage in an assessment of their individual situation, Barlow sug- gested. "Seeing what's next is going to separate winners from losers. You want your income to go down, then don't connect Internet-wise nor with the changes. You want your income to go up, then you connect virtually and you understand how to adapt to meet the demand of the changing climate." Barlow's overall message is not entirely shrouded in gloom and doom. "The good news is the average human being only uses 10 percent of his or her mental ability, which means what: We've got ninety percent left!" Leaders in education, business, government and other areas should embrace this human aspect, and their role is "to tap that other ninety percent ... of potential that exists out there," he said. WHAT DO LEADERS NEED?  A 'REVOLVING GAP ANALYSIS' Leadership is all about a "revolving gap analysis," Barlow explained. "Individually, as an employer, as a community, it's all about a revolving gap analysis: regularly looking at the environment, assessing what's new, how does that affect you, and making course correctons," Barlow said. "You've got to take on that kind of culture if you're going to do well."

Article and Photographs by CHUCK KNEBL, webmaster & writer.